Canadian Housing Market Cooling Creates Buyer Opportunities This Fall

The Canadian housing market is navigating through choppy waters this fall, with new data from Re/Max Canada painting a picture of cautious optimism mixed with regional disparities. If you’ve been watching the market closely, you’re likely wondering what the remainder of 2025 holds for both buyers and sellers.

A Tale of Two Markets

What’s particularly striking about the current landscape is how dramatically conditions vary across the country. While Atlantic Canada and the Prairie provinces have been experiencing year-over-year price gains throughout the first seven months of 2025, Ontario and British Columbia tell a different story entirely. These traditionally hot markets have seen declines in two-thirds of their housing markets, reflecting a significant shift in buyer sentiment and market dynamics.

The numbers speak volumes about this transformation. Sales have dropped year-over-year in 62% of markets between January and July, with Re/Max brokers noting an uptick in both price reductions and conditional sales throughout 2025. This trend suggests that buyers are becoming more selective and negotiations are intensifying.

The Price Prediction That’s Got Everyone Talking

Perhaps the most significant takeaway from Re/Max Canada’s 2025 Fall Housing Market Update is their forecast of a 6.5% decline in national average home prices this fall, coupled with a 5% decrease in home sales by year’s end. These aren’t small adjustments. They represent substantial shifts in market momentum.

As Don Kottick, president of Re/Max Canada, puts it: “Canada’s real estate landscape paints a complex picture of resilience and caution, influenced by regional nuances and continued economic uncertainty. From seller-driven markets across much of Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, to buyer-friendly conditions in Ontario and B.C., the nation’s housing market reflects a delicate balance.”

First-Time Buyers: The Changing Guard

One of the most interesting developments is the shifting profile of market participants. While first-time buyers dominated sales activity in 2024, this year tells a different story. Families, newcomers, and retirees have stepped up to drive market activity, while first-time buyers have taken a step back, and it’s not hard to understand why.

The statistics reveal the challenges facing first-time buyers: only 7% of Canadians plan to purchase their first home in the next year. Those who are taking the plunge are notably older, typically in their late 20s to 40s, reflecting the reality that it’s taking longer to accumulate the necessary resources to enter today’s market.

Interestingly, their financial preparation varies significantly. While 28% have managed to save at least 20% for a down payment, and 33% have saved at least 15%, many are exploring creative solutions including co-ownership and other non-traditional strategies to make homeownership possible.

The Opportunity Window

Despite the challenges, there’s reason for cautious optimism. An encouraging 54% of Canadians believe this fall presents a good opportunity to strike a deal on a home. Among the 12% planning to buy in the next year, most are simply waiting for the right conditions. The survey reveals that two-thirds would be motivated to act with either a 5-10% drop in prices or modest interest rate cuts.

For sellers, the message is clear: success requires strategy. With 8% of Canadians planning to sell in the next year, those who approach the market with realistic pricing, smart staging, and a solid understanding of local conditions are positioning themselves for success. Remarkably, 63% of potential sellers believe they’ll be able to secure their asking price – a testament to their confidence despite market challenges.

Economic Sentiment and Long-Term Outlook

The broader economic picture offers some stability. Nearly half of survey respondents expect the economy to remain steady over the next six months, while 38% view the current economy as strong. Perhaps most importantly, 92% of homeowners continue to see their property as a solid long-term investment, demonstrating enduring confidence in real estate despite short-term volatility.

Government initiatives are also contributing to cautious optimism, with nearly half of Canadians believing that renewed commitments to increase housing supply will improve affordability within three to five years.

The Value of Local Expertise

In this complex market environment, professional guidance is more valuable than ever. Over half of Canadians (53%) recognize that working with a local real estate agent would help them identify pockets of affordability. With conditions varying dramatically between provinces, cities, and even neighborhoods, local market knowledge has become essential for navigating today’s opportunities and challenges.

Looking Ahead

While the fall market may be cooling, it’s creating opportunities for prepared buyers and realistic sellers. The key is understanding that this isn’t a uniform national market – it’s a collection of regional markets, each with its own dynamics and opportunities.

Whether you’re considering buying or selling, the current environment rewards those who approach the market with clear strategies, realistic expectations, and professional guidance. The data suggests that while we may be entering a cooler period, the fundamentals of Canadian real estate remain strong for those who understand how to navigate the changing landscape.

Source: Re/Max Canada’s 2025 Fall Housing Market Update