Calgary Real Estate Market: Understanding AI Predictions and Real Opportunities Ahead

The Calgary real estate market continues to generate interest from researchers and industry professionals alike, with a recent AI-driven study making headlines for its bold predictions about potential price changes in our city. While the study’s projections have captured attention, it’s important to understand what these findings really mean for both buyers and sellers in Calgary’s dynamic market.

What the Study Predicts (And Why Experts Urge Caution)

A new study by Associate Professor Erkan Yonder from Montreal’s Concordia University used artificial intelligence to forecast potential price movements in major Canadian cities, including Calgary. The research suggests that Calgary home prices could see significant changes over the next few years, with median prices potentially declining under certain scenarios.

However, the study’s own author emphasizes caution when interpreting these results. “It’s less likely to see the worst-case scenario for Calgary. Is there a risk? Yes, there’s a risk,” said Yonder, highlighting that the projections represent potential outcomes rather than certainties.

Expert Perspectives: Why the Market May Be More Resilient

Local and academic experts have responded thoughtfully to these projections, offering valuable context for Calgary residents. University of Calgary professor Sasha Tsenkova, while calling the study “quite comprehensive,” reminds us that “We need to take these findings with a grain of salt.”

Calgary realtor John Hripko from Royal LePage Benchmark takes an even stronger stance, calling the predicted price slides “totally fictitious” and noting that the study may not fully account for important local factors like inter-provincial migration.

Great News for Calgary Buyers and Sellers

These expert opinions point to several positive factors that benefit both sides of Calgary’s real estate market:

For Home Buyers:

• Smart Development Practices: Local developers are building strategically to meet demand rather than oversupplying the market. As Hripko notes, “They don’t randomly keep building because there’s no demand. Why would they?”
• Market Stability: Canada’s financial safeguards and Calgary’s strong economic fundamentals provide protection against dramatic market swings
• Continued Supply Growth: More than double the number of new homes came online in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, creating more options for buyers

For Home Sellers:

• Sustained Demand: Calgary’s population growth through both international and inter-provincial migration continues to drive housing demand
• Developer Discipline: The construction industry’s measured approach to new supply helps maintain market balance
• Long-term Recovery Outlook: Even the study’s most conservative scenarios show market stabilization and recovery in the coming decade

The Bigger Picture: Calgary’s Housing Market Resilience

What’s particularly encouraging is how Calgary’s market demonstrates resilience through thoughtful planning and development. Unlike markets that might experience boom-bust cycles, Calgary benefits from:

• Responsive Construction: Developers who adjust to demand rather than speculate
• Economic Diversity: A broad-based economy that supports steady housing demand
• Geographic Advantages: Room for growth and development that many other major cities lack

Professor Tsenkova’s comparison to the 2008 financial crisis is telling. Canada’s housing market weathered that global storm remarkably well, and Calgary’s fundamentals today are strong.

Looking Forward with Confidence

While any market analysis deserves consideration, the expert consensus suggests that Calgary’s real estate market is well-positioned for continued stability. The study author himself emphasizes that the research’s broader goal is to “find cheaper ways to build more housing” and help markets react to potential trends.

For Calgary residents, this means:

• Buyers can feel confident that market fundamentals support their investment decisions
• Sellers can trust that Calgary’s diverse economy and growing population provide ongoing demand
• Everyone benefits from a market that’s attracting attention for its potential and stability

The key takeaway? While it’s always wise to stay informed about market research, Calgary’s real estate fundamentals, from smart development practices to economic diversity, continue to create opportunities for both buyers and sellers in our vibrant city.