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After fifteen years of helping Calgary families navigate the ever-changing real estate landscape, I’ve learned that national headlines don’t always tell the whole story of what’s happening in our local market. This week’s announcement from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is a perfect example of why understanding the nuances between national trends and Calgary-specific conditions is so crucial for both buyers and sellers.
What the Numbers Are Really Telling Us
According to The Canadian Press report published on July 15, 2025, CREA has once again adjusted its 2025 forecast, now predicting 469,503 residential sales across Canada, a three percent decline from 2024. The national average home price is expected to drop 1.7% to $677,368, about $10,000 lower than their April prediction.
But here’s what I want you to understand as a Calgary resident: real estate is inherently local. While these national figures provide context, Calgary’s market dynamics are shaped by factors that don’t necessarily mirror what’s happening in Toronto, Vancouver, or the Maritimes.
The “Chaotic Start” and Calgary’s Resilience
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart described the early months of 2025 as having a “chaotic start,” largely attributed to trade uncertainty and tariff concerns affecting buyer confidence. In my experience here in Calgary, I’ve witnessed firsthand how external economic pressures can create temporary hesitation among both buyers and sellers.
However, what strikes me most about the current situation is Calgary’s underlying resilience. Unlike some markets that are heavily dependent on foreign investment or speculative buying, Calgary’s real estate market has always been grounded in fundamental demand from people who actually live and work here. This creates a more stable foundation, even during periods of broader economic uncertainty.
The Alberta Advantage: Why Calgary Stands Apart
The CREA report specifically mentions that Alberta, along with BC and Ontario, experienced more significant impacts from tariff-related uncertainty than initially expected. While this might sound concerning, I see it differently when viewed through the lens of Calgary’s unique position.
Calgary’s economy has undergone remarkable diversification over the past decade. Yes, energy remains important, but we’ve seen tremendous growth in technology, financial services, film production, and other sectors. This economic diversification means our real estate market isn’t as vulnerable to single-industry shocks as it once was.
Moreover, Calgary continues to offer something that many other Canadian markets simply can’t: affordability. Even with national concerns about housing costs, Calgary remains one of Canada’s most accessible markets for both first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their living situations.
June’s Green Shoots: Signs of Recovery
The report highlights that June saw a 3.5% increase in home sales compared to the previous year, with a 2.8% month-over-month improvement on a seasonally adjusted basis. While much of this recovery was led by the Greater Toronto Area, I’m seeing similar positive momentum here in Calgary.
In my recent transactions, I’ve noticed several encouraging trends:
Increased Buyer Activity: After months of sitting on the sidelines, serious buyers are beginning to re-engage with the market. The combination of lower interest rates and pent-up demand is creating opportunities for those ready to act.
Quality Listings Moving: Well-priced, well-presented homes are still attracting multiple offers and selling within reasonable timeframes. This tells me that the fundamentals of supply and demand remain healthy in Calgary.
Realistic Pricing: Both buyers and sellers are approaching transactions with more realistic expectations, which is creating a more balanced negotiating environment.
What This Means for Calgary Home Sellers
If you’re considering selling your Calgary home, the current environment actually presents some unique advantages:
Less Competition: With inventory levels still relatively manageable, your properly priced home won’t be lost in a sea of similar listings. Quality properties that are priced correctly are standing out more than they have in recent years.
Serious Buyers: The buyers who are active in today’s market are generally well-qualified and motivated. They’re not just browsing, they’re ready to make decisions when they find the right property.
Pricing Strategy is Key: The market rewards accuracy. Homes that are priced correctly from the start are selling, while those that chase the market downward are sitting longer. This is where experienced local representation becomes invaluable.
Timing Flexibility: Unlike the frenzied seller’s markets we’ve seen in the past, today’s environment allows for more thoughtful timing of your sale, whether that’s coordinating with a purchase or aligning with personal circumstances.
Opportunities for Calgary Home Buyers
For buyers, I believe we’re entering one of the most opportunity-rich periods I’ve seen in several years:
Negotiating Power: The shift toward a more balanced market means buyers have more room to negotiate on price, terms, and conditions. Subject clauses are becoming more common and acceptable again.
Time to Choose: Unlike markets where buyers felt pressured to make split-second decisions, today’s Calgary market allows for proper due diligence, home inspections, and thoughtful decision-making.
Interest Rate Environment: With the Bank of Canada maintaining current policy rates and mortgage rates hovering around four percent, financing costs remain manageable for qualified buyers.
Selection: There’s good selection across most price ranges and neighborhoods, giving buyers the luxury of finding homes that truly meet their needs rather than settling for what’s available.
Looking Ahead: The Summer and Fall Outlook
CREA’s forecast suggests that delayed spring activity could surface during the summer and fall months, and I’m optimistic this will prove accurate for Calgary. The report notes that “most housing markets continued to turn a corner in June,” and I believe Calgary is well-positioned to participate in this recovery.
Several factors support this optimism:
Pent-up Demand: There are buyers who have been waiting for the right moment or the right property. As confidence returns, this demand will translate into sales activity.
Economic Fundamentals: Calgary’s employment market, while facing some challenges, remains more stable than many anticipated. The diversification I mentioned earlier is providing resilience.
Lifestyle Appeal: The pandemic reinforced Calgary’s appeal as a place where families can afford good homes with yards, access to nature, and a high quality of life. This hasn’t changed.
The Trade Uncertainty Factor
I would be remiss not to address the elephant in the room: ongoing trade negotiations and tariff uncertainties. The report mentions a critical August 1 deadline, and the outcome will undoubtedly influence market psychology.
However, based on my experience, Calgary buyers and sellers have weathered numerous economic storms over the years. While uncertainty can create short-term hesitation, the fundamental need for housing, people getting married, having children, changing jobs, or retiring, continues regardless of trade policy.
My advice to clients has been consistent: focus on what you can control. If you need to buy or sell based on your life circumstances, don’t let external uncertainties prevent you from making sound decisions for your family.
The Long-Term View: 2026 and Beyond
CREA’s 2026 forecast predicts a 6.3% improvement in national sales, with average prices recovering to $697,929. For Calgary, this suggests we’re likely looking at a temporary adjustment period rather than a fundamental market shift.
I’ve seen this pattern before in our market. Calgary real estate tends to move in cycles, and those who understand these cycles, and work with experienced professionals who do, consistently make better decisions.
Practical Advice for Right Now
For Sellers:
- Price your home correctly from the start based on current market conditions, not last year’s peak prices
- Ensure your home shows well. First impressions matter more in a balanced market
- Be prepared for reasonable negotiation on price and terms
- Work with a REALTOR® who understands current market dynamics and pricing strategies
For Buyers:
- Get pre-approved for financing to understand your true budget
- Don’t rush. Take time to find the right property that meets your needs
- Include appropriate subject clauses to protect yourself
- Remember that buying a home is a long-term decision; focus on fundamentals rather than trying to time the market perfectly
The Bottom Line
While national headlines might seem concerning, I remain optimistic about Calgary’s real estate market. We have strong fundamentals: a diversifying economy, reasonable affordability, growing population, and a quality of life that continues to attract new residents.
The current market adjustment is creating opportunities for both buyers and sellers who approach transactions with realistic expectations and proper guidance. As someone who has helped hundreds of Calgary families navigate various market conditions over the past fifteen years, I can tell you that opportunities exist in every market, you just need to know how to find them.
The key is working with professionals who understand not just the national trends reported in publications like The Canadian Press, but more importantly, the specific dynamics of our local Calgary market. Real estate truly is local, and that local expertise makes all the difference in achieving your goals.
Whether you’re considering buying your first home, selling to upgrade, or making any other real estate move, now is an excellent time to have a conversation about your specific situation and how current market conditions might work in your favor.
Source: “CREA cuts 2025 forecast again but says home sales are rebounding from ‘chaotic start'” by Sammy Hudes, The Canadian Press, published July 15, 2025
